Why Groww Could Outpace Traditional Brokers by 2030

Introduction

Since its launch in 2016, Groww has evolved to become the largest and the fastest-growing online investment platform in India, founded by employees of Flipkart, Lalit Keshre, Harsh Jain, Ishan Bansal, and Neeraj Singh. The company had been established with a vision that is a simplification of investment, since investment was seen to be a complex and expensive endeavour in India. Groww has succeeded in becoming the market leader in the retail investment ecosystem in India by dint of a technology-first and customer-centric approach.

Core Offerings

Groww offers an entire range of financial services and products on its mobile app and its website. A retail investor is able to invest and trade in stocks and IPOs, derivatives, bonds, and mutual funds and also avail himself of margin trading facilities and personal loans. The user-friendly interface of the product is based on an in-house technology stack which improves customer experience and promotes its use. This product range not only appeals to new investors but also allows cross-selling, thus increasing the level of interaction with the current users.

Business Model

The business model by Groww is based on two key drivers, namely an increase in active users and growth in average revenue per user (ARPU). Whereas acquisition and retention rates are the factors that stimulate user growth, product diversification and user activity improve ARPU.

Cross-sell strategy can be observed by the trends in the adoption of the product on the platform. By June 2025, 48.4% of users invested in stocks, 38.3% invested in stocks and one other product, and 13.3% invested in stocks and 2 or more products. It implies that more than 50% of clients of Groww take several products, which proves the high level of interaction and long-term revenue prospects.

Revenue Streams

Groww has several sources of revenue:

• Stocks, IPOs, and derivative transactions The broking and transaction fees.
• Bonds and mutual fund distribution costs.
• Interest on margin trade.
• Personal loan income from lending services.
• Value-added services such as premium features and partnerships.

This diversified revenue model provides stability and scalability as the company expands.

Industry

Market Size and Growth Projections: The investment and wealth management industry in India has enormous potential, with the total addressable market (TAM) approximated to be ₹1.1 trillion in March 2025. It is projected that the industry will increase by 15-17% CAGR that will almost be doubled to 2.2-2.6 trillion by March 2030. The structural tailwinds that will fuel this growth will be increased because of investor participation, increase in disposable incomes, increased household investable surpluses, and increased digital penetration throughout the country.

As of June 30, 2025, Groww had approximately 12.6 million active NSE clients, representing a remarkable CAGR of 41.7% from June 2022. This growth has far outpaced the broader industry, which grew at just 7.98% over the same period. Notably, Groww achieved market leadership in active clients by September 2023 and has since consolidated its position as the fastest-growing broker among the top five in India. Beyond equities, Groww has emerged as a major force in the mutual fund ecosystem, processing nearly ₹340 billion in SIP inflows in FY25, equivalent to 1 in every 9 rupees invested via SIPs across India.

Financials Snapshot

Revenue Growth – Groww has experienced quick growth, with revenues increasing to 3,901.7 crore in FY25, as compared to 29.5 crore in FY21. Although the growth slowed down to 49.5% in FY25 compared to 1,089% growth in FY22, the trend shows that the business has good momentum.

Profitability & Margins –

1. EBITDA: Losses in FY21–22 gave way to profits in FY23, followed by a dip in FY24 and a strong rebound to ₹2,371 crore in FY25 (margin: 403.6%)
2. PAT: FY25 was the turning point after either making or losing in previous years; it recorded a 1824 crore profit (PAT margin: 46.7%).
3. EPS: In FY25, its EPS increased by 326.5%, namely, from 1.35 to 3.06.

Ratios & Leverage – The debt is low  0.12 in FY25, The recovery of the ratio of returns was high, and the ROE was 37.6% and the ROA was 18.1%, which indicated increased efficiency.

Valuation – Groww has a market cap of 95,334 crores; it has a PE of 52.3x and a PE of 24.4x, which indicates high valuation due to investor confidence.

Despite the high volatility of profitability, Groww has provided high growth and a robust FY25 recovery. Its balance sheet is lean, and its efficiency is rising, which is the supporting factor of its premium valuation, but the execution risks are present due to the volatility of earnings in the past.

Peer Comparison: Groww vs. Angel One, Motilal Oswal and Nuvama Wealth.

• It is evident that Groww is ahead of its rivals in the wealth management and broking arena. Its active clients in NSE increased to 12.92 million in FY25, surpassing Angel One (7.58m), Motilal Oswal (1.01m) and Nuvama (0.17m).
• Client growth stands at 77.5% in FY24 and 35.5% in FY25, which are significantly above peers. Groww also exhibits greater engagement as compared to traditional brokers since it has 13.94 million active users projected in FY25.
• Financially, Groww is turning around sharply—from a -28.8% margin in FY24 to an expected 44.9% in FY25, surpassing Angel One, Motilal Oswal, and Nuvama which hover around 20–34%.

In summary: The digital-first business model is accelerating customer growth, higher customer engagement, and better profitability at Groww, which makes it a future leader in retail broking.

FORECASTING

In order to evaluate the potential of Groww by FY30, we have constructed our own projection of projections in three scenarios: Bear, Base and Bull cases, considering important assumptions of growth, profitability and valuation multiples.

Assumptions

• Revenue Growth: The bear case has a 16% CAGR, which is generally in tandem with the industry forecast of Redseer. The base case is 20% growth, which represents increased use of digital investing. In the bull scenario, we are estimating 24% growth, which is due to faster customer acquisition and penetration.
• Profitability (PAT Margin): In the bear case, we maintain margins at FY25 levels, whereas, in the base case and the bull case, we assume growth because Groww would enjoy operating leverage, scale economies and cost rationalisation.
• Valuation Multiple (P/E): In bear case, we hold a constant P/E, whereas in the base and bull cases, we model growth of multiples due to the sustainability of earnings growth, and the pace of market leadership of Groww in digital broking industry
  
  

Outcomes

• In the bear scenario, the revenue will be about 8,195 Cr. and PAT of 3,831 Cr. with a valuation of 2 lakh Cr.
• Under the base case, revenue is about 9709 Cr and PAT is about 4660 Cr, which values Groww at around 2.6 lakh Cr.
• Under bull, the revenue may reach up to 11,438 Cr and the PAT 5,719 Cr, which means that it could be valued at 340,000 Cr.

This will lead to the possible price per share of 336 in the bear case, 430 in the base case and 576 in the bull case and provides upside returns of 110% to almost 260% by FY30.

Essentially, Groww has high potential for returns even when conservative assumptions are made, and in even more positive growth and profit potential, it has high upside.

Why Invest in Groww?

• Market Leadership: Groww leads the market by the number of active clients in India, having a market share of about 25%, and this leadership status increases with scale. Its retail involvement, particularly in SIP flows, is an indication of the penetration and confidence of a platform among investors.
• Established Profitability: After a period of turbulence, Groww became profitable in FY25, and the margins were high, and its efficiency continued to improve. There is a potential to increase profitability to a significant extent in the coming years with additional operating leverage.
• Retail Dominance: Groww leads the pack in the accelerated financialisation of India, allowing millions of first-time customers to access equities, mutual funds and other financial products without any hassle. It is the preferred retailer because of its strong brand and technology-first model.
• Attractive Upside: As the user base grows fast, there is a solid execution track record, and the industry moves in the right direction, Groww presents investors with a unique chance to invest in a high-growth industry. The platform under consideration, even on conservative assumptions, offers healthy return potential in the form of double digits, but in a bullish case, it might turn into a multi-bagger in the next decade.
  

To conclude, Groww is an attractive long-term compounding story, as it has a combination of high user growth, profitability, and market leadership in the fast-growing investment ecosystem in India. Groww has unlisted shares which can now be found on Sharescart for investors interested in being a part of this ride.