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Akshay Rajawat    


Surat, India

I am CA student and along side perusing the CFA (U.S.). I have a 6 month experience in Equity Research where i have done my internship programme in the same. I am keen to write an articles on Equity.

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DREAMFOLKS

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Dreamfolks Services Limited

Dreamfolks Services Limited - A Business Analysis


About The Company

 

DreamFolks is a dominant player and India's largest airport service aggregator platform, an incubator of the industry with its unique, asset light, capital efficient business model. DreamFolks' provides services to all the Card Networks operating in India including Visa, Mastercard, Diners/Discover and RuPay; and many of India's prominent Card Issuers including ICICI Bank Limited, Axis Bank Limited, Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited, HDFC Bank Limited (in respect of debit card lounge program) and SBI Cards and Payment Services Limited. DreamFolks carefully crafted a service proposition and a tech platform to provide DreamFolks clients (such as card network providers, banks, airline operators and hotels) the option of offering a wide-ranging bouquet of services to their end customers, as part of their customer engagement and loyalty management programs. It provides with access to a host of services: from door-step to the airport, within the airport, and again from the airport to the door-step at the destination, including Lounges, Food and Beverage, Spa, Meet and Assist, Airport Transfer, Transit Hotels/Nap Room access, and Baggage Transfer.

DreamFolks' dominant position is underpinned by its estimated market share of over 95% in Fiscal 2022 of all India issued Card Based access to domestic lounges in India (F&S Report). DreamFolks has 50 Clients including the Card Networks and many of India's prominent Card Issuers as of March 31, 2022, and 9.79 million (97.9 lakh) pax (people or passengers), cumulatively, had availed of its services, since Fiscal 2020. Through its partnerships with other service providers, DreamFolks has a global footprint extending to 1,416 touch-points in 121 countries across the world out of which, 244 Touch-points are present in India and 1,172 touch-points overseas, as at March 31, 2022. Out of the total estimated pax of 75 lakh accessing lounges in India in FY20 (pre-pandemic), 48.8 pax did so through DreamFolks' network. In FY22 (pandemic year), DreamFolks facilitated access to 35.3 lakh out of a total of 52 lakh pax accessing lounges in India.

DreamFolks' first mover advantage in the lounge access aggregator industry in India has enabled it to become a dominant player in the industry with a share of over 80% in the domestic lounge access market in India. DreamFolks' dominance is underpinned by facilitating access to 100% of the 54 lounges currently operational in India (Source: F&S Report). DreamFolks' has tied up with various entities to facilitate access to around 57 restaurants / F&B outlets at 18 airports across India, as at March 31, 2022. Over the years, the company has transformed from being an airport lounge access aggregator to an end-to-end technology solutions provider for designing and delivering services that enhance the airport experience.

Industry Analysis

Global Economic Scenario
The global economy grew at 6.1% in CY 20211 and is expected to grow by 3.6% in CY 2022 as per the World Economic Outlook (WEO) released by International Monetary Fund (IMF) published in April 2022.

As compared to the WEO published in April 20222 , the world economic growth has been revised downwards by 2.32% for CY 2022. The upwards revision by 1.93% for CY 2022 for advanced economies is an outcome of growth outlook, balanced by upward revision of 2.58% in Emerging Markets and Developing economies (EMDEs). 

Regarding the changed outlook, IMF view is, “The upward revision for 2022 reflects an upgrade for advanced economies—the economic rebound since the pandemic and the substantial contribution of advanced as well as fast moving economies to the same is expected to be one of the key drivers. In FY 2021, the downward trajectory of the global economy was in part due to supply disruptions—and for low-income developing countries, largely due to worsening pandemic dynamics. This is partially offset by stronger near-term prospects among some commodityexporting emerging market and developing economies. Rapid spread of Delta and the threat of new variants had
increased uncertainty about how quickly the pandemic can be overcome. Policy choices have become more difficult, with limited room to maneuver.

The pandemic induced disruptions and subsequent supply chain jeopardy exposed the contemporary vulnerabilities of existing supply chain. Motivated by economic nationalism and vulnerabilities in supply chain, many governments are actively promoting import substitution. However, the success of implementation would depend on consumers disposition towards low cost goods, and principle of comparative advantage would operate resulting in international trade and specialization.\

Regional Growth Outlook
Regional growth has bounced back, however speed of recovery differs considerably among nations and regions. Recovery to pre pandemic output is far from complete at the current instance of time.

In advanced economies, continued monetary and fiscal support was a necessary condition to drive the post-recession recovery in the short-term gap. To achieve price stability and public debt sustainability, a gradual normalization of macroeconomic policy level interventions will be necessary. In advanced economies, inflation is expected to be 5.7% in CY 2022 as a result of war-related rises in commodity prices and broader pricing pressures.

South East Asian nations will be largely benefitted by gains in trade5 . Even during the worst of the pandemic, trade has upheld invariably well. South East Asia is a heavily trade driven region, and trade can drive the post pandemic recovery in the region. A huge surge in demand for personal protective equipment and electronic devices was observed as the world transitioned from an office economy to work from home economy. The phenomenon has resulted in has increased manufacturing of these equipment in South East Asian nations.

Main drivers of post pandemic recovery as per forecasts are India, Cambodia, Vietnam in Asia and Ethiopia, Kenya and Niger in Africa as shown below. This is discounting the growth of China.

In comparison to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, governments across the globe undertook timely policy intervention during the pandemic. It is also to be noted that, the global financial crisis had an exogenous shock from the collapse of banking sector affecting the aggregate global demand which further developed into a recession. In contrast, the COVID induced recession was primarily due to supply side factors which are easing out as the lockdowns start to abate around the globe.

INDIA MACRO-ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The Indian economy contracted by 7.3% in FY 2020-219 . However the Indian economy showed a strong rebound by 8.7%10 in FY 22. The growth projection for FY 2023 is 6.9%. The expected fast rate of growth will also have a multiplier effect on sectors like tourism and aviation.

India GDP Growth Forecast
Estimates from the Reserve Bank of India, peg the GDP at current prices to recover from the low seen in 2020. In 2014-2015 at current prices the GDP stood at 124 lakh crores INR. Till 2019-2020 it recorded a CAGR of around 8.5%11. In 2020-21, it dipped due to the effect of pandemic. Major reduction was seen in the second quarter. However, in subsequent quarters, GDP at current prices crossed the 50 lakh crores mark in FY 2020-2021 indicating the worst of the pandemic was behind us.

Population Growth
India is at a cusp of demographic dividend, with a large increase in the working age population. This would have obvious effects on consumption including aviation.

As of the 2011 census, the total population stood at 1.2 billion people. India added around 181 million people to its population since 2001. Uttar Pradesh remained the state with the highest population, roughly around 200 million and Sikkim the state with the least population around 610,577 individuals. Based on sex, India had 623 million males as opposed to 586 million females as of 2011.

Estimates from World Bank suggests that Indian population was at 1.38 billion individuals as of 2020. This figure is expected to increase at a decreasing rate. The working age dependency ratio is one of the lowest at around 48%.

Impact of Macro-Economic Outlook on Aviation
Aviation sector is one of the fastest growing sectors in India. The need for high speed mobility across the subcontinent facilitates the growth of aviation sector in India. Private Final Consumption Expenditure is a proxy variable for consumer demand and the upward trend in PFCE indicates that the consumer demand is also demonstrating an upward trend.

Along similar lines, the rise in middle-class high-income population would also result in families undertaking frequent vacations and actively seeking out employment in different parts of the countries. This would facilitate the need for high speed mobility, for which the answer is aviation sector. The above two factors would positively influence the aviation industry resulting an upward growth in aviation sector. 

GLOBAL AIR TRAVEL MARKET
The Global aviation sector had taken a hit due to the COVID-19 induced lockdowns, however the revival phase has begun. The Global airlines are planning to resume their long-haul routes, specially driven. This holds good for the Indian domestic market also; it is interesting to note that a few Indian Tier-2 and Tier-3 airports have surpassed the Pre-COVID traffic numbers. The Indian Aviation is expected to recover faster than expected, it is important to note that May 2022 Domestic Traffic numbers have optimistic growth towards reaching Pre COVID passenger numbers at an accelerated pace.

Global Air Travel Industry
The volume of global air passengers was around 1 billion in 1990 and it increased 4X times to surpass 4 billion passengers in 2019. During the past three decades the global aviation sector has witnessed 6 key incidents14 that decelerated the growth of passengers. The 6 incidents were:

• Gulf War 1990
• Asian Financial Crisis 1997
• World Trade Center terrorist attack of 9/11- 2001
• SARS pandemic of 2003
• Financial Crisis 2008
• Global COVID 2019 pandemic

The Global aviation industry has been quick to recover in the past; however the airlines have been struggling to recoup since COVID-19. The COVID-19 related losses to global airlines are estimated at around USD 200 billion15 as a result of the pandemic. In spite of this, tourism and travel is making a slow but steady recovery. Mass vaccination drives, softer travel restrictions and use of digital and electronic tools to gauge the susceptibility of an individual to the pandemic are contributing to increased tourism volume and easing up of border restrictions.
In CY 2020, the global aviation sector experienced a drop in the number of overall passengers to 1.8 billion which was 60.2% lesser than the 4.4 billion passengers in 2019. 

Correlation of GDP Growth with Aviation
A rise in GDP contribution accounts for an increased spending within the aviation sector. Figure 4 below shows the co-relation of aviation trips per capita and GDP per capita. As the GDP per capita increases, so do the trips per capita. Singapore ranks highest in both the parameters, while India ranks lowest in the countries which have been compared. Due increasing GDP per capita, and better demographics Indian aviation sector and the number of trips per capita have a huge potential to grow.

Figure 4 below shows the correlation between GDP growth and Revenue Passenger kilometers. Except for 2020, the aviation industry average growth rate was recorded at 5%-6%, annually which indicates that aviation sector grows at a faster rate than the GDP growth. The correlation between GDP and Aviation is high. India’s GDP growth to domestic air traffic growth is 1.8x and on total air traffic growth is 1.4x from FY 2010 to FY 2020. The aviation sector’s direct impact on GDP is recorded to be USD 3.5 trillion, i.e. 4.1% of Global GDP in 2019. By
the year 2038, the aviation sector is expected to account for USD 6.3 trillion of Global Economy. 

India and APAC Aviation Sector
The growing markets within India and South Asia are some of the key drivers for the growth of the overall Asian aviation sector. South Asia is forecasted to have a passenger growth rate of 6.6% till the year 2040. The passenger growth prospects within this region is considered to be strong due to the presence of India. India’s economy is anticipated to grow with a CAGR of 5.1% between 2021-2040 The demographic factors and the high propensity to travel within India is expected to accelerate the growth associated with the Indian aviation market. India has a highly competitive domestic market catered to by domestic carriers. Policies that promote airport infrastructure and the imposition of regulations that support the aviation sector is expected to be a key driver for this market. The induction of project UDAN is expected to be one of the key contributing factors to the Indian Aviation Industry.

INDIAN AIR TRAVEL MARKET OVERVIEW
India Volume Growth Versus Other Countries and Way Forward

Air and Rail Travel Propensity
Travel propensity is defined as the frequency of travel for a given individual within a nation. It is ratio of passenger raffic to overall population within a given region. The air travel propensity of some key countries is as given below. 

The top 4 countries with the highest propensity to travel via Air are noted to be Australia, US, Canada and Japan. The countries with low air travel propensity are the BRIC countries, Indonesia and Mexico. Amongst the least air travel propensity countries, India is the lowest, however it is also expected to be the third largest air travel market by 2030 according to IATA (International Air Transport Association).

India’s Air Traffic Growth Trend
Domestic Traffic

International Traffic
As per the graph below, it is observed that the CAGR for international Air Travel between 2015-2019 was 6%. The international air passenger traffic in India increased from 18.42 million in 2015 and increased to 24 million in 2019. The 2019 international air passengers numbers would have surpassed 25 million (2018 values) in a normal scenario. However, COVID-19 impacted international air travel in latter half of 2019 and continued to in 2020, 2021 and 2022. This is a temporary dip in the international air travel passengers and the market is expected to recover back to pre COVID-19 scenario by 2024-25.

Dreakfolks - Business Overview

Dreamfolks is a dominant player and India's largest airport service aggregator platform facilitating an enhanced airport experience to passengers leveraging a technology driven platform (Source: F&S Report). The company asset-light business model integrates global card networks operating in India (Card Networks), credit card and debit card issuers (Card Issuers) and other corporate clients, in India, including airline companies (Corporate Clients and along with Card Networks and Card Issuers, the Clients) with various airport lounge operators and other airport related service providers (collectively, the Operators) on a unified technology platform. The company facilitate customers of Clients’ (Consumers) access to the following airport related services (i) lounges, (ii) food and beverage (iii) spa, (iv) meet and assist, (v), airport transfer (vi) transit hotels /nap room access, and (vii) baggage transfer, (collectively, the Services).

The company dominance is underpinned by facilitating access to 100% of the 54 lounges currently operational in India, and they also enjoyed a market share of over 95% of all India issued credit card and debit card (Card Based) access to airport lounges in Fiscal 2022. Additionally, in Fiscal 2022 they also accounted for around 68% of the overall lounge access volume in India. (Source: F&S Report). Further, as at March 31, 2022 through their partnerships with other service providers, the company have a global footprint extending to 1,416 Touch-points in 121 countries across the world out of which, 244 Touch-points are present in India and 1,172 Touch-points overseas.

The company began effective operations in 2013 by facilitating lounge access services for the Consumers of Mastercard and, currently, provide services to all the Card Networks operating in India including Visa, Mastercard, Diners/Discover and RuPay, and many of India’s prominent Card Issuers including ICICI Bank Limited, Axis Bank Limited, Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited, HDFC Bank Limited (in respect of debit card lounge program) and SBI Cards and Payment Services Limited. Over the years, we have transformed from being an airport lounge access aggregator to an end-toend technology solutions provider for designing and delivering services that enhance the airport experience. We have crafted our service proposition to provide Clients the option of offering a wide-ranging bouquet of Services to the Consumers. Currently, the company facilitate Consumers’ access to a host of services: from door-step to the airport, within the airport, and again from the airport to the door-step at the destination. Company first mover advantage in the lounge access aggregator industry in India has enabled them to become a dominant player in the industry with a share of over 80% in the domestic lounge access market in India.

Business Operation

Company's platform and services portfolio allows Card Networks, Card Issuers, and Corporate Clients to build bespoke solutions addressing disparate aspects of airport services for Consumers. Card Networks and Card Issuers can avail of any of the Services and may provide complimentary lounge access and complimentary access to other Services to the Consumers as part of their offerings under eligible credit and debit cards programmes, and they enable this access across Services. Corporate Clients also leverage our solutions to extend benefits to their user base and facilitate access to Services.

The company provide Clients the option of providing the Consumers different mechanisms to access certain airport related services like lounges via the more traditional mechanisms like credit cards or debit cards, membership cards, or via digital solutions such as mobile applications using our hybrid technology. Company also focus on the Operators who provide the Services and give them the option of a single point access to the Consumers along with consolidated footfall and revenue, while also providing them technology to validate the benefits available to Consumers, provide Card Based and digital access, and billing.

Business Services

Company service offerings have increased significantly, and they have continued to augment their Client base over the years and, as at March 31, 2022, have 50 Clients including the Card Networks and many of India’s prominent Card Issuers.

Further, company have had long association with a number of our Clients, and their top 5 Clients, as of March 31, 2022, having been associated with them for over 3 years out of the 9 years that they have been operational. Company's Client portfolio also includes prominent airlines, a telecommunication company, an online travel agency (OTA) and other corporates in India who generally make available these services to customers of their choice. As of March 31, 2022, 9.79 million Paxes, cumulatively, had availed of their services, since Fiscal 2020.

Business Discription

Lounge Access: Company have 100% coverage of operational lounges in Indian airports, and they offer a unique value proposition to their Clients by enabling access to the Consumers to a network of all operational airport lounges in India. Consumers have access to lounges including in Bengaluru, Chennai, Mumbai and New Delhi operated by various entities including Premium Port Lounge Management Company Private Limited, Travel Food Services Private Limited and Saptagiri Restaurant Private Limited. As at March 31, 2022, company had exclusivity to provide access to 12 domestic lounges across 11 airports in India constituting around 22.22% of the total access of the domestic lounges for India issued credit cards and debit cards.

Food and Beverage offerings: Company had tied up with various entities to facilitate access to around 57 restaurants / F&B outlets at 18 airports across India, as at March 31, 2022. At these restaurants / F&B outlets, Consumers can select from the curated ‘DreamFolks’ menu a variety of vegetarian and non-vegetarian food and beverage combinations (‘combo’ offerings).

Spa Services: As part of their focus on making air travel as enjoyable and relaxing as possible, Consumers can avail of specified massage therapies such as head, neck and shoulder massage, and foot reflexology. Company facilitate access to this service in tie-up with O2 Spa Salon Private Limited.

Meet and Assist: Company's facilitate end-to-end assistance to the Consumers at the airport. The services are available at select airports to Consumers at arrival and departure terminals of select airports in India. The ‘meet and assist’ services are available at different price points and encompass a wide variety of services, depending on the airports in India. Company have also entered into an agreement with an international airport concierge service provider facilitating the ‘meet and assist’ services at various airports across countries such as Australia, Austria, Canada, Belgium, Brazil, France, Germany, United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates and United States of America. The following services form part of the ‘meet and assist’ service offering.

On arrival: Receiving Consumers at the aero-bridge, assisting in immigration clearance (where permissible), baggage assistance, and escorting Consumers to their transport.

The company's also provide an option to facilitate ‘medical meet & assist’ at arrivals at select airports in India.

Airport transfer services: company facilitated airport transfer, i.e., airport ‘pick-up and drop’ facilities in 47 cities across India and in 145 cities outside India, as at March 31, 2022.

Transit Hotels / Nap Room Access: In Mumbai and New Delhi, through our tie up with Niranta Airport Transit Hotel & Lounge (a unit of International Airport Hotels & Resorts Private Limited) and Holiday Inn Express New Delhi International Airport T-3 (a unit of Devaryaa Hospitalities Private Limited), we facilitate access to hotel rooms. Further, in Bengaluru, Cochin and Mumbai, we also facilitate access to ‘nap rooms’ or ‘sleeping pods’, i.e., specialised facilities which allow passengers, particularly transit passengers, access to private rooms /
compartmentalised sleeping quarters, with rest-room access.

Baggage Transfer: We have tied up with a service provider to provide baggage pick-up and drop-off facility to and from airports across Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Mumbai, and New Delhi.

Other: In addition to providing Services at airports, we have also, in the current Fiscal, forayed into the railways sector and, we have entered into contracts to provide lounge access at 8 railway stations in India. 

Key performance indicators

Set out below are the details pertaining to the total number of passengers accessing lounges in India and our Company’s contribution to the same:

Financial performance 

Strength of the company

Dominant player in the airport lounge aggregation industry in India with strong tailwinds

Company are the largest and dominant airport lounge access provider in India. In Fiscal 2020, of the total Indian domestic lounge access, around 80% was through India issued credit cards and debit cards. Company's dominant position is underpinned by their estimated market share of over 95% in Fiscal 2022 of all India issued Card Based access to domestic lounges in India.

Moreover, company have coverage across 54 operational airport lounges constituting 100% of airport lounges in India, as at March 31, 2022. Further, as at March 31, 2022, they had exclusivity to provide access to 12 domestic lounges across 11 airports in India constituting around 22.22% of the total access of the domestic lounges for India issued credit cards and debit cards. Further, in Fiscal 2022, company catered to approximately 68% of the overall lounge traffic in volume across all lounges in Indian airports (both the domestic and international lounges).

Entrenched relationships with marquee Clients including global card network providers in India and prominent Indian and global banks and corporates

Company's have tie-ups with all the 5 Card Networks operating in India including Visa, Master Card, Diners/Discover and RuPay. Further, some of India’s largest Card Issuers are also among our key clients including ICICI Bank Limited, Axis Bank Limited, Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited, HDFC Bank Limited (in respect of debit card lounge program) and SBI Cards and Payment Services Limited. In Fiscal 2022, company enjoyed over 95% market share in the India issued Card Based transactions for lounge access.

In addition, company also have tie-ups with some of India’s prominent corporates including airline companies, telecommunications company, OTA, loyalty aggregators, and other corporates such as Interglobe Aviation Limited, Go Airlines Limited, Air Asia (India) Limited, Vodafone Idea Limited, Jet Privilege Private Limited, Hettich India Private Limited, Easy Trip Planners Limited and Mahindra Holidays and Resorts India Limited. This enables us to broaden our customer base. We have also provided meet-and-assist solutions to a pan-India hospital chain.

Company's Clients rely on our Services to provide the airport enhancement experience to their customers as a part of their customer acquisition and engagement endeavours. Their industry dominance, partner eco-system and service offerings coupled with their robust technology platform enables them to attract new clients. Company's total number of Clients has grown from 14 during Fiscal 2018 to 50 as at March 31, 2022. Moreover, their top 5 Clients for the Fiscal 2022, have been associated with us for over 3 years. Company have been associated with the airport lounge programmes of clients such as RuPay, ICICI Bank Limited, HDFC Bank Limited (in respect of debit card lounge program), Axis Bank Limited, and Standard Chartered Bank. We were the launch partner for Rupay’s domestic lounge access programme. 

Strong business moat due to flywheel effect led by Clients and Operators network
Given their dominant position in the airport lounge access market, company have been successful in building a bridge between their Clients and airport lounge Operators. Company's position in the industry enables them to create interdependencies for their service offerings through their unique value proposition enabling them to attract newer clients and Operators, which helps them further strengthen their position in the market. 

Management

Liberatha Peter Kallat - Chairperson and Managing Director

Liberatha Peter Kallat, aged 46 years, is the Promoter and Managing Director of our Company. She was designated as the Chairperson of our Company on November 30, 2021. She holds a bachelor’s degree in science from Andhra University. She has been associated with our Company since 2014 and is responsible for the strategy and overall management of our Company. She has experience in the hospitality sector and has, in the past, been associated with Indian and global multinational companies such as Taj GVK Hotels & Resorts Limited, PepsiCo. India, Premium Port Lounge Management Company Private Limited, and Pernod Ricard India (P) Limited. She has received a number of awards including the Entrepreneur of the Year in the Future Woman Leader Summit and Awards 2017, Outstanding Women Entrepreneur and Employment Award 2018, Women Icon of the Year 2019, Women Entrepreneur of the Year Award 2019, Economic Times most promising business leaders of Asia Award 2019 and 10 best entrepreneurs of 2021 by Industry Era Magazine. She has also received a certificate of recognition as ‘The 10 Most Inspiring Women Entrepreneurs to Watch Globally’ by Innovative Zone, ‘Woman of Excellence Award’ by Indian Achievers’ Forum and ET Inspiring Women Leaders (North-2022).

Financials

Profit and Loss

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow

Margin of the company

Disclosure:

I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Business relationship disclosure:

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Stocx Research Club). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure:

Sources - Company website, RHP, StocX. Disc - Not an recommendation as its for a knowledge purpose only

Disclosure legality:

I am not a SEBI Registered individual/entity and the above research article is only for educational purpose and is never intended as trading/investment advice.

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