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Ashish Ghosh    


Ashish Ghosh is a research analyst for the global and Indian financial markets (macro/techno-funda). With more than 12 years of experience in the capital market, Ashish has been published in high-profile online media regularly. He holds a B.Sc. in Math along with NCFM certification for Technical and Fundamental analysis. Presently, Asis is working with iForex as a continuous freelancer financial analyst/content writer since 2017, analyzing mainly the global and Indian markets. You can have a glimpse of his works on his Twitter feed (asisjpg).

Contributor since: 2022

Articles: 85

Likes: 14

Comments: 0

Followers: 18

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Nifty may come under stress on growing election uncertainty

Dow and Nifty Future recovered on Friday as Iran downplayed the Israel retaliation; India may be heading for a hung Parliament as BJP may not get over 250 seats alone

Nifty gained almost 30% in FY24 on positive global cues and Modi 3.0 boost; what’s next?

Depending on likely poll outcome and various scenarios, Nifty may scale 23500-24500 by FY25, while may also correct to 20300-19500 (if BJP fails to get min 273 seats alone)

USDINR may scale 86 soon as RBI may shift stance and election looms

RBI has to lower borrowing costs of the government/economy to promote double-digit GDP growth for the next 25 years with below 4% core CPI

Nifty under stress on electoral bond scam despite Modinomics optimism

Although Modi-3.0 is still almost certain, looking ahead Modi-4.0 may be tough if India’s real economic issues can’t be properly resolved

Nifty stumbled on the concern of political stability and MF stress tests

The market is concerned about names/images of electoral/political donors including not only big private corporations but also their PSU peers

Nifty may scale 24K by 2024 on big reform effort in Modi 3.0

India’s real GDP ($) has grown from around $1.61T in FY14 to an estimated $2.08T in FY24; i.e. an average rate of only around +3% in the last ten years

Nifty closed the week in green on positive global cues and lower CPI

The market is quite optimistic about Modi-3.0 and the vision of $5T nominal GDP by 2030

Nifty may come under stress on fading hopes of an early and deeper RBI/Fed rate cuts

Ahead of the general election, RBI/Government is now more cautious about maintaining some price stability, while the economy growing above 7%

Nifty slid on a hawkish hold by the RBI

RBI holds rate with 5-1 votes; RBI may officially shift to neutral mode in April and start cutting rates from Aug’24 (in line with Fed)

Nifty slips last week as FPIs, banks, techs and RIL dragged

The Feb’24 interim budget (vote on account) may be a visionary document for the next five years without any major fiscal stimulus/policy decision

Nifty recovered on positive global cues amid China stimulus

Earlier Nifty stumbled on a subdued report card by HDFC Bank & RIL coupled with FPI regulatory tightening by SEBI

Nifty stumbled from life time high on negative global cues

Hawkish talks by ECB policymakers and increasing geopolitical tensions between Houthi rebels/Iran and US/Israel dragged the risk sentiment

India’s RBI may cut rates by 75 bps in 2024 from August

RBI may go for rate cuts from Aug’24 if the Fed goes for the same from Jun’24, everything being equal; also by then India’s CPI may dip toward 4% on a sustainable basis

Nifty may correct on higher for longer policy and regulatory tightening by RBI

RBI may ask private banks and SFBs to lower CD ratio below 75% while tightening screws on unsecured retail lending

India’s nominal GDP and Nifty EPS may grow by double-digits in FY: 24-30

Higher USDINR, policy/macro stability, huge CAPEX, lower borrowing costs, and robust domestic demand may help GDP & Nifty EPS in the coming years

Nifty jumped on hopes of 400 seats for PM Modi in 2024 election

Dalal Street is boosted by political & policy stability, the attraction of Modinomics and 6D (development, deregulation, demand, demography, digitalization, and democracy)

Nifty under stress on RBI regulatory tightening despite Gaza war pause

Ahead of the general election, RBI/Modi admin may officially restrict MFI/NBFCs to charging sky-high interest rates for priority sector lending

Nifty slips on RBI tightening of unsecured retail lending

Also, lingering uncertainty about the Gaza war trajectory affected risk trade sentiment despite hopes of an early RBI/Fed rate cut

Nifty surged on hopes of early RBI rate cuts and a pause of Gaza war

Considering the present trend of India’s core inflation and the Indian general election, RBI may cut from Feb’24

Nifty may recover as IDF may end Gaza surgical operation soon

Israel may go for a ceasefire for a hostage-free deal with Hamas after securing Al-Quds Hospital and the suspected Hamas HQ tunnels

Nifty slid on Israel-Hamas war tensions and higher bond yield

But Dow as well as Nifty Future may recover on easing of Israel-Hamas geopolitical tensions as Hamas is now gradually releasing hostages

Nifty EPS grew around 7% in Q1FY24 and may grow 8% in FY24

Subdued discretionary consumer spending amid higher cost of living, higher cost of borrowings, and lingering global macro-headwinds affecting earnings

Nifty stumbled from a lifetime high dragged by HDFC Bank and RIL

Also, the diplomatic rift with Canada, fading hopes of an early election by Dec’23, and ONOE (one nation, one election) affected the Indian market

Nifty may again scale around 20K on hopes of Fed/RBI pivot

Positive global cues amid hopes of Fed pivot and targeted Chinese stimulus may also help India’s Dalal Street despite subdued report card for Q1FY24

RBI goes for another hawkish hold in August

Nifty was undercut by an unexpected hike in additional CRR; RBI is now keenly watching the core inflation trajectory and adapting higher for longer stance

Equity Research Report: Tata Steel (Q1FY24)

Subdued Chinese economic growth and lingering macro-headwinds are affecting steel prices/spreads negatively despite upbeat Indian demand

RBI is set for another hawkish hold; what about Nifty, USDINR?

The next Nifty move will depend upon U.S. inflation data/Fed/RBI stance and trajectory of Q1FY24 earnings/guidance

Equity Research Report: INFY (Q1FY24)

Infy won the large deal for around $2.3B in Q1FY24, up 9.5% sequentially and 35.3% yearly; may report at least 8% growth in core operating EPS in FY24

Nifty stumbled from 20K on softer than-expected report card (earnings & guidance)

Nifty EPS grew by only +6% in FY23 and is projected to grow +8% (6-10%) in the coming years on an average

Equity Research Report: SBI

SBI may report a 15% CAGR in core operating EPS for FY: 24-26 amid robust credit demand, NIM, NPA management, and domestic macro stability

RBI June MPC minutes show hawkish hold stance continuation

RBI may hike in Dec’23 by +25 bps for a terminal rate of +6.75% if Indian core CPI again surges towards +6.00% and Fed goes for two hikes in H2CY23

Nifty scaled a new lifetime high on improving domestic macros and hopes of RBI pivot.

For FY: 24-25, Nifty EPS may grow by around +10% (CAGR) against +8% in FY23; Nifty may scale around 19250 shortly and 21175 by Mar’24

Equity Research Report: Axis Bank-Q4FY23

Axis Bank may report a +20% CAGR in core operating EPS for FY: 24-26 amid robust credit demand, NIM, NPA management, and domestic macro stability.

Nifty stumbled on a hawkish hold by the RBI

RBI again clarified it’s a pause not a pivot; depending on actual Fed action, RBI may go for another one/two hikes and hold till at least FY24

Equity Research Report: Adani Enterprises

In FY23, core operating EPS jumped almost +295% due to the lower base effect of various incubating businesses (airports, roads); the trend may continue in FY24-25 too

Nifty may scale 20400 levels by March’24

Nifty earnings may be boosted by improving macro, huge fiscal/infra stimulus, growing affluent middle class, RBI/Fed pause, and higher USDINR

Nifty jumped to a 5-month high on US debt deal optimism but slips on RBI concern

RBI raised corporate governance concerns and smart/innovative accounting methods being employed by some banks to hide NPA and ever-green stressed assets

Equity Research Report: Reliance Industries Ltd.

RIL is a big beneficiary of Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions on Russian oil, especially in the EU

Nifty surged to a 5-month high on positive global cues and lower inflation

The market is now expecting an RBI pause in June; Nifty EPS declined to 835 so far in Q4FY23 against 850 sequentially and 809 yearly; FY23 estimate 875

Equity Research Report: INFY -Q4FY23

With almost $10B order in hand for FY24, Infy may beat the subdued guidance despite the chorus of an imminent recession in U.S-Europe

Equity Research Report: Ambuja Cements

A good business model in temporary distress amid the Adani saga; like steel, the cement industry is also a major beneficiary of India’s infra boom

Nifty recovered on FMO clarification about LTCGT tinkering rumor

RBI minutes show RBI has opted for a tactical pause on 6th April, not pivot; RBI may hike again on 8th June if Fed goes for a +25 bps hike each in May and June

Equity Research Report: TCS -Q4FY23

TCS is one of the big beneficiaries of digital transformation by global corporates to optimize cost, and business processes and stay ahead of the competition

Equity Research Report: Tata Steel

Tata Steel may scale around 130 by Sep’23, 159 by Mar’24, and 195 by Mar’25 amid stable steel prices/realizations and India’s infra push

Nifty jumped on surprised RBI pause but stumbled as it’s not a pivot

RBI gave priority to financial stability over price stability, depending on actual Fed rate action, RBI may or may not hike in June and is very close to a pivot

Nifty closed almost flat in FY23 on subdued global cues, macro headwinds, and tepid earnings

At FY24 projected EPS around 956*20 (average PE), Nifty may scale around 18900-19100 by Mar’24

Equity Research Report: Voltas

Voltas may now fall towards 735-600-535 levels on the loss of market share, thin EBITDA margin, and tepid discretionary consumer demand

Equity Research Report: Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL)

RIL may scale 2866 by June’23, 3392 by Mar’24, 4017-4758 by Mar’25 amid expected robust O2C, retail, telecom/digital and Oil & gas (E&P) business

Nifty tumbled on US regional banking crisis led by SVB

But the Indian banking system is now quite resilient after years of consolidation, various regulatory reforms, and also elevated NIM/NII regime

Equity Research Report: JSW Steel

JSW Steel may scale around 741-963 by Mar’24-Mar’25 on expected higher demand driven by India and China coupled with better realizations/spreads

Nifty bounced back on hopes of a Fed/RBI pivot and ease of Adani's pain

February RBI minutes show ongoing rate hikes at +25 bps till at least June’23 to keep pace with Fed and to bring down India’s sticky core inflation

RBI may hike further by 25 bps each in April and June before any pause

But RBI may also go for rate cuts in early 2024, just ahead of the general election if India’s sticky core inflation indeed falls below 5% on a sustainable basis

Equity Research Report: ACC

ACC may be another example of a good business model in temporary disruption amid Adani\'s chaos; may scale 2900-4500 levels by Mar’24-Mar’26

Nifty stumbled on Adani chaos despite a pragmatic budget

But Nifty may scale around 21400 by FY24 (projected consolidated EPS 1070 and average PE 20)

Equity Research Report: TCS -Q3FY23

TCS may scale 3900-4700 levels by Mar’23-Mar’24 on higher revenue growths and better EBITDA margin in the coming days

Nifty closed 2022 marginally higher and resumed 2023 in a subdued tone amid global macro headwinds

India’s economy may grow around 6.50-7.00% and Nifty earnings 15-20% in FY24. India has a huge potential to improve its GDP/Capita, now lowest in G20

Equity Research Report: ICICI Bank

ICICI Bank may scale 1154 by Mar’23 and 1385 by Mar’24 amid steady business growths, lower NPA provisions/credit costs, and higher NIM

Nifty stumbled on a more hawkish than expected RBI hike

RBI may hike further by +25 bps each in February and April for a terminal rate of +6.75%

Equity Research Report: Axis Bank

Axis Bank may scale 1031 by Mar’23 and 1435 by Mar’25 on the robust business model, steady advance growths, and resilient NIM

Nifty may scale a new lifetime high soon on hopes of Fed/RBI pivots and upbeat earnings

Nifty may scale 21000 levels by Dec’23 (projected FY24 EPS around 1050 and average PE 20) if there is no WW-III (nuclear war) triggered by Russia

Equity Research Report: INFY

Infy is a major beneficiary of global inflation as companies are now embarking on cost optimization by adopting greater automation, digital and cloud adaption

RBI may continue to hike by another 160 bps through June’23

RBI may like to keep the repo rate at +7.50% against average core inflation around +6.00% and a probable Fed rate of +5.50%

Nifty slips on negative global cues and the concern of faster RBI tightening

Looking ahead, jumbo Fed hiking and elevated domestic inflation may force RBI to continue to follow the Fed hiking path and RBI may hike +0.50% on 30th September

Equity Research Report: Tata Motors

With a focus on EV transition, JLR reimage, cost control, deleveraging, and buoyant domestic operations, Tata Motors may scale 540-648 by FY: 24-25

Nifty jumped to almost 18K on FPIs buying support amid hawkish RBI and stable INR

RBI may hike another +75 bps minimum till Feb’23 (@25 bps) for a terminal rate +6.15% (if Fed goes for +150 bps rate hikes in rest of 2022)

Equity Research Report: TCS

TCS may scale 4000 levels by FY23 on higher revenue and better EBITDA margin in the coming days

Tata Steel plunged on the subdued report card, guidance and export duty

Tata Steel may face capacity constraints in FY23, but is on the way to adding another 10MT production capacity by FY30

JSW Steel sinks after subdued Q4FY22 report card and export duty; what’s next?

JSW Steel may be an example of a good business model under temporary disruption; strong domestic demand may help despite various global headwinds

USDINR jumped on growing policy divergence between RBI and Fed

RBI is now effectively treating the +6.00% upper tolerance band of CPI as a target against official +4.00%

LICI: FY22 fair valuation around 520 but may scale 1075 by FY: 23-24

As the pandemic has turned into an endemic, it should help LIC profitability; also COVID scare will help new business

RBI may continue to hike at a 50 bps rate in line with Fed

Inflation may not come down meaningfully if Russian geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions linger

Nifty wobbled from RBI optimism high on the concern of synchronized global stagflation

Nifty stumbled in line with Dow Future ahead of U.S. inflation data after the White House indicated elevated CPI

India’s GDP grew an impressive 6.7% sequentially in Q4FY22; what’s about Nifty EPS?

Indian economy and Nifty EPS may continue to grow at a reasonable pace despite various headwinds

Nifty closed the week in green but stumbled on negative global cues

The Indian market was also supported by upbeat PMI and in line with estimated GDP data

RIL recovered on hopes of higher GRM amid lingering Russian sanctions

Previously RIL plunged on the subdued report card (Q4FY22) and no comments by the management about R-JIO and R-Retail listing

RBI almost confirmed a 50 bps rate hike in June and subsequent meetings; metals plunged after the export duty hike

Depending upon the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement/lingering war and inflation, RBI may cumulatively hike to +6.50% or +7.15% by Feb’23 (against Fed’s +2.75% or +3.50% by Dec 22)

HDFC Bank plunged after Q4FY22 report card; what’s next?

But the volatility may be an opportunity to buy a quality blue-chip private bank in adversity

Nifty plunged as RBI blinks just ahead of Fed meeting

RBI goes for an unexpected, unscheduled rate hike just ahead of much anticipated Fed hike; RBI may now hike +0.75% in June and +0.50% in August to match Fed

Infy tumbled after Q4FY22 subdued report card; what’s next?

Infy tumbled on mixed guidance coupled with below expected revenue and operating margin, but the plunge may be a good opportunity to enter a blue-chip in adversity

Nifty tumbled on negative global cues amid the concern of faster Fed tightening and the Russian threat of nuclear WW III

RBI may be compelled to hike @0.50% five times (in line with Fed) for a policy repo rate of +6.50% by Feb’23

Yes Bank-What’s next?

Eventually, Yes Bank may merge with Kotak Bank

Nifty slumped on the concern of faster RBI tightening as India’s inflation jumped

RBI May Start Hiking From June and May Hike 5-Times in FY23 in Line With Fed

Hero MotoCorp-IT raid plunge may be a wonderful opportunity to buy a good business model in adversity

Hero Motor was already under pressure even before the IT raid incident due to a weak Q3FY22 report card. Looking ahead, Hero Motor is quite confident of demand revival, easing of higher raw material costs, and supply chain disruptions along with a robust export market.

Wipro tumbled on the disappointing report card and FIIs exodus amid the Russia and Ukraine war, what's next?

Wipro is a good investment idea around 590-520 levels, considering a good business model, strong balance sheet, and impeccable corporate governance. The short to mid-term target is around 750-900, while the long-term target is around 1080.